Nitish Kumar And The Artwork Of Surviving Allies (Even The BJP)

In Bihar, formally, the winner and loser(s) might be recognized on November 10 nevertheless it is not actually a case of sticking one’s neck out to name the election – Nitish Kumar will return as Chief Minister for a fifth time period, the results of a mutually helpful relationship of his partnership with the BJP and the recognition of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The opposition alliance, which has declared as its presumptive Chief Minister 30-year-old Tejashwi Yadav and contains the Congress and the Left, has little traction. And if, until three weeks in the past, the election appeared a carried out deal, some much-needed zing has been offered by Chirag Paswan, age 36.

His revolt towards Nitish Kumar and the BJP, launched final week with the announcement that he won’t stay a part of their collaboration in Bihar, has energised the speculation that he’s the BJP’s coiffed, six-foot-tall secret missile towards Nitish Kumar. Chirag Paswan declared his social gathering, the LJP, won’t run towards BJP candidates; as a substitute, their full focus might be on taking up Nitish Kumar’s contenders from the JDU. Chirag Paswan would eat into Nitish Kumar’s votes, the BJP would win essentially the most seats within the state and immediately have the flexibility to determine whether or not it ought to persist with its dedication of returning Nitish Kumar to the workplace of Chief Minister.

Bihar BJP leaders are categorical in denying all the above. However no one is naive sufficient to consider that Chirag Paswan just isn’t a part of a tag workforce with the BJP. From Patna to Delhi, there have been no tweets by any BJP leaders defending Nitish Kumar after Chirag Paswan mentioned on Saturday that his can be a stand-alone effort within the election. The primary assertion denouncing his statements which included lavish criticism of Nitish Kumar’s governance got here practically 50 hours later.

On Monday, just a few hours earlier than Nitish Kumar and the BJP had been scheduled to handle a joint desire confirming what number of seats every of them would contest, BJP leaders who met the Chief Minister at his residence discovered him irate sufficient to trace that he could not be a part of them on the occasion. He was reassured that the BJP would unequivocally state that no matter the end result, Nitish Kumar might be Chief Minister if their workforce wins. Catastrophe averted. The press convention befell, although it was delayed on account of the damage emotions.

Bihar BJP leaders privately insinuate election strategist Prashant Kishor for instigating Chirag Paswan’s radical transfer. For years, Prashant Kishor was a trusted Nitish Kumar aide, privileged with the standing of a cupboard minister. However ten months in the past,he was banished for criticising his mentor’s avid help of the contentious Citizenship Modification Act, flagged by critics as anti-Muslim. BJP sources say that the election slogans and advertisements of Chirag Paswan bear the distinct imprint of Prashant Kishor however sources near the younger politician say he has not met the strategist in two years and this can be a handy approach for the BJP to deflect from itself any blame for Chirag Paswan’s assault on Nitish Kumar.

For the final three months, the connection between Nitish Kumar and the BJP has not been the definition of convivial. The Chief Minister, 69, felt the BJP’s extended negotiations over what number of seats it will be assigned was a telltale signal of its intention to achieve the controlling stake.

Nitish Kumar’s method to companions has been like a hop-on hop-off bus. After an almost 18-year alliance with the BJP, in 2015, he ditched it for Lalu Yadav and the Congress forward of the state election. Sources in his workforce ruefully level out that regardless of Lalu Yadav being an ornery chief, the choice on seat-sharing and the listing of candidates had been introduced at two consecutive press conferences with minimal fuss. In 2017, Nitish Kumar did a backsies to the BJP. Final 12 months, for the final election, they adopted the identical template of 2015 – two joint press conferences declaring seat allocation after which names of candidates. This time round, bored with ready for the BJP to finalise its names, the JDU went forward on Wednesday to launch its listing of candidates. There can be no Completely happy Households joint look.

If Nitish Kumar has one thing to consolation him, or to make the slights, perceived or actual, price it, it’s that the arithmetic and social chemistry of his alliance with the BJP stays intact on the bottom. He could have a brand new B-team to deal with in Chirag Paswan nevertheless it is not an actual risk. The Paswan neighborhood types 5 p.c of the Dalit inhabitants. They’ll help Chirag Paswan, however the non-Paswan Dalit votebank, collectively the “Mahadalits”, add upto 11 p.c and they’re seemingly to present Nitish Kumar and the BJP their fulsome help (Paswans are the dominant Dalit caste and the others resent their primacy). The BJP will draw the higher castes. And excluding the Yadavs, who again Lalu Yadav and his son, the Different Backward Castes just like the Kurmis (Nitish Kumar’s caste), Kushwahas and the EBCs (a group of over 40 castes generally known as essentially the most backwards amongst backwards) will vote for Nitish Kumar and the BJP. As soon as supporters of Lalu Yadav, this group, amounting to 35 p.c of the inhabitants, switched loyalty to Nitish Kumar after he empowered them by introducing reservation for them in village panchayats and different grassroots our bodies.

On the opposite facet, Tejashwi Yadav and the Congress will galvanise the Muslims, small sections of higher castes and the Yadavs.

Nitish Kumar flubbed the administration of the migrants from Bihar who returned residence when the lockdown was ordered; his dealing with of the Coronavirus disaster has been deeply flawed; and when the floods arrived, he was seen as a hands-off administrator. However his suggestions from social gathering employees is that he scores as a result of the choices to him usually are not seen as viable. With Lalu Yadav hospitalized in Ranchi (he was convicted in 2018 for corruption after which moved later to a hospital), his workforce is feeling the absence of its shrewdest and most charismatic participant. That is the primary meeting election, since 1980, the place Lalu Yadav will not be campaigning. 

There’s additionally the greater than 12,000 crores Nitish Kumar has spent over the past six months utilizing direct money transfers to place cash into the accounts of the poor. Households obtained advance funds to purchase faculty uniforms and cycles, scholarships, and to purchase mid-day meals in order that within the absence of purposeful faculties, youngsters weren’t disadvantaged of free mid-day meals.

All this may occasionally assist to maintain voter anger in verify. After which there’s the massive draw of the PM whose recognition is off-the-charts. So whereas Chirag Paswan could also be appearing out in public and Nitish Kumar in personal, it’s the BJP whose beat is thumping. For the primary time, it’s contesting practically the identical variety of seats as Nitish Kumar, proving its rising dominance of their association.

(Manish Kumar is Government Editor at NDTV)

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